Typhoon Mina approaches Zhejiang

The center of the No. 18 typhoon Mina (typhoon level) this year (at 30th) is located on the east side of Taiwan, about 305 kilometers southeast of Taipei City, Taiwan, at 22.6 degrees north latitude and 122.8 degrees east longitude. The maximum wind force near the center is 12 (35 m / s), the lowest pressure in the center is 970 hectopascal, the radius of the seven-level wind circle is 220-300 km, the radius of the ten-level wind circle is 80 km, and the radius of the twelve-level wind circle is 30 km.

Fengyun 4 satellite (real-time typhoon path marking)
It is expected that “Mina” will move to the north-west direction at a speed of about 25 kilometers per hour, and the intensity will continue to increase, with the strongest typhoon level or strong typhoon level (12-14, 35-42 m/s). It will land or wipe the northern part of Taiwan Island today, and then turn to the north, and may land or wipe the north-south coast of Zhejiang on the afternoon of October 1 (strong tropical storm or typhoon level, level 10-12) , 28-33 m / s), then turned to the northeast, moving towards the southern part of the Korean peninsula, the intensity gradually weakened.

Source: Central Meteorological Observatory
Gale forecast: From 14:00 on the 30th to 14:00 on October 1st, there will be 6-8 winds in the Bashi Channel, the Taiwan Strait, the east of Taiwan, the northeastern part of the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the coast of Taiwan Island, the coast of Fujian, and the coast of Zhejiang. In some sea areas or areas, there will be 9-10 winds. The winds in the nearby waters of the Mina Center are 11-14, and the gusts are 15-16.

Source: Central Meteorological Observatory
Precipitation forecast: From 14:00 on the 30th to 14:00 on October 1st, there were heavy rains in parts of eastern Zhejiang, northeastern Fujian, and central and northern Taiwan. There were heavy rains or heavy rains (250-500 mm).

Source: Central Meteorological Observatory
At present, whether Mina is landing in China is still not completely certain. The path forecast issued by the Central Meteorological Observatory is biased to land, while the forecast of the Japan Meteorological Agency is biased towards landing in China.

Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
From the path forecast given by ECMWF (European Central Numerical Forecast), ECMWF is biased to land. On the other side, the forecast path of GFS (US numerical forecast) indicates that the probability is not logged in. Therefore, it is still doubtful whether Mina will land in China.

▲ECMWF forecast biased landing

▲ GFS forecast bias does not land
According to the analysis of Xinxin, a meteorologist of the China Meteorological Channel, whether the typhoon will land in the future depends mainly on whether the high-pressure area on the north side of the typhoon is westward or eastward. If you go west during the day, then the typhoon may land in northern Taiwan tonight, and the probability of landing in Zhejiang later is relatively large. However, if the high-pressure zone on the north side retreats, so that Mina will bypass the island of Taiwan, the probability of landing in Zhejiang later will be relatively small. But whether it is landing or wiping, the path deviation is about 100 kilometers from the east and west, so the impact of wind and rain can’t escape.

▲Analysis by meteorologist Xin Xin
In the next three days, the typhoon “Mina” will bring wind and rain to Shanghai, Zhejiang, Taiwan and other places! In the early days of the 11th holiday, the friends in the above-mentioned areas are still honestly at home.